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Atlantic Hurricane Trends Linked to Climate Change
Title | Atlantic Hurricane Trends Linked to Climate Change |
Publication Type | Journal Article |
Year of Publication | 2006 |
Authors | Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel |
Journal | EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union |
Volume | 87 |
Issue | 24 |
Pagination | 233, 244 |
Type of Article | Journal |
Abstract | Increases in key measures of Atlantic hurricane activity over recent decades are believed to reflect, in large part, contemporaneous increases in tropical Atlantic warmth [e.g., Emanuel, 2005]. Some recent studies [e.g., Goldenberg et al., 2001] have attributed these increases to a natural climate cycle termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), while other studies suggest that climate change may instead be playing the dominant role [Emanuel, 2005; Webster et al., 2005]. Using a formal statistical analysis to separate the estimated influences of anthropogenic climate change from possible natural cyclical influences, this article presents results indicating that anthropogenic fators are likely responsible for long-term trends in tropical Atlantic warmth and tropical cyclone activity. In addition, this analysis indicates that late twentieth century tropospheric aerosol cooling has offset a substantial fraction of anthropogenic warming in the region and has thus likely suppressed even greater potential increases in tropical cyclone activity. |
URL | ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/EOS_mann_emanuel_2006.pdf |
DOI | 10.1029/2006EO240001 |
Reference number | 385 |
Short Title | Atlantic Hurricane Trends Linked to Climate Change |
Citation Key | 385 |