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Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes
| Title | Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes |
| Publication Type | Journal Article |
| Year of Publication | 2003 |
| Authors | Santer, B. D., M. F. Wehner, T. M. L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G. A. Meehl, K. E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, WM Washington, J. S. Boyle, and W. Bruggemann |
| Journal | Science |
| Volume | 301 |
| Issue | 5632 |
| Pagination | 479-483 |
| Date Published | JUL 25 2003 |
| ISBN Number | 0036-8075 |
| Keywords | 20TH-CENTURY, ATMOSPHERE, climate-change, model, REANALYSES, SIMULATIONS, temperature, TROPICAL TROPOPAUSE, UNCERTAINTIES, variability |
| Abstract | Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause-the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere-has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases account for similar to80% of the simulated rise in tropopause height over 1979-1999. Their primary contributions are through cooling of the stratosphere (caused by ozone) and warming of the troposphere (caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases). A model-predicted fingerprint of tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational ("reanalysis") data sets. This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating. |
| Reference number | 53 |
| Short Title | Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes |
| Citation Key | 53 |