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Human-modified Temperatures Induce Species Changes: Joint Attribution

TitleHuman-modified Temperatures Induce Species Changes: Joint Attribution
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2005
AuthorsRoot, T. L., D. P. MacMynowski, M. D. Mastrandrea, and S. H. Schneider
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Date PublishedMAY 24 2005
ISBN Number0027-8424
Keywords20TH-CENTURY, BIRDS, Climate change, climate-change, DATES, double attribution, FLYCATCHER FICEDULA-HYPOLEUCA, global warming, INDICATORS, PHENOPHASES, plant animal impacts, regional climate change, responses, SPRING PHENOLOGY, trends

Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climatic change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data, which are independent of thermometer records and paleoclimatic proxies, we demonstrate statistically significant "joint attribution," a two-step linkage: human activities contribute significantly to temperature changes and human-changed temperatures are associated with discernible changes in plant and animal traits. Additionally, our analyses provide independent testing of grid-box-scale temperature projections from a general circulation model (HadCM3).

DOIDOI 10.1073/pnas.0502286102
Reference number


Short TitleHuman-modified Temperatures Induce Species Changes: Joint Attribution
Citation Key69