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Possible Implications of Global Climate Change on Global Lightning Distributions and Frequencies

TitlePossible Implications of Global Climate Change on Global Lightning Distributions and Frequencies
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication1994
AuthorsPrice, C., and D. Rind
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres
Volume99
IssueD5
Pagination10823-10831
Date PublishedMAY 20 1994
ISBN Number0148-0227
KeywordsCONVECTION, THUNDERCLOUDS, THUNDERSTORMS, WATER
Abstract

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 X CO2 climate (representing a 4.2-degrees-C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9-degrees-C global cooling). The results suggest a 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1-degrees-C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Reference number

354

Short TitlePossible Implications of Global Climate Change on Global Lightning Distributions and Frequencies
Citation Key354