Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States 2009 Report Legacy site

We evaluated 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to severalscenarios of climate change, and summarized those responses for nine northeastern UnitedStates. We modeled and mapped each species individually and show current and potential futuredistributions for two emission scenarios (A1fi [higher emission] and B1 [lower emission]) andthree climate models: the Parallel Climate, the Hadley CM3, and the Geophysical FluidDynamics Laboratory model. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat fortree species in this region, especially under a high emissions trajectory. Results indicate thatwhile species with potentially increasing areas of suitable habitat in the Northeastern USsubstantially outnumber those with decreasing areas of habitat, there are key species that showdiminishing habitat area: balsam fir (Abies balsamea), paper birch (Betula papyrifera), redspruce (Picea rubens), bigtooth and quaking aspen (P. grandidentata and Populus tremuloides),and black cherry (Prunus serotina). From these results we identified the top 10 losers and gainersfor each US state in the region by scenario and emissions trajectory. By combining individualspecies importance maps and developing assembly rules for various classes, we created maps ofpotential forest types for the Northeast showing a general loss of the spruce-fir zone withadvancing oak-hickory type. Further data, maps, and analysis can be found atwww.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas.