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Tipping Elements in the Earth's Climate System
| Title | Tipping Elements in the Earth's Climate System |
| Publication Type | Journal Article |
| Year of Publication | 2008 |
| Authors | Lenton, T. M., H. Held, E. Kriegler, J. W. Hall, W. Lucht, S. Rahmstorf, and H. J. Schellnhuber |
| Journal | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
| Volume | 105 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pagination | 1786-1793 |
| Date Published | FEB 12 2008 |
| ISBN Number | 0027-8424 |
| Keywords | ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET, ASIAN SOUTHWEST MONSOON, ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION, CAP INSTABILITY, Climate change, climate policy, earth system, EL-NINO-LIKE, EXPERT JUDGMENTS, FOREST DIEBACK, large-scale impacts, MODEL SIMULATIONS, SEA-LEVEL CHANGE, tipping points, WEST-AFRICAN MONSOON |
| Abstract | The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points. |
| DOI | DOI 10.1073/pnas.0705414105 |
| Reference number | 85 |
| Short Title | Tipping Elements in the Earth's Climate System |
| Citation Key | 85 |