Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States 2009 Report Legacy site

This study documents the scale and intensity of drying over the last half century in the Kenai Lowlands of south-central Alaska. Using historical aerial photos and field sampling of wetlands, including muskegs, kettle ponds, and closed and open basin lakes, we present data on drying and successional changes in woody vegetation between 1950 and 1996. The results of this study suggest that the Kenai Peninsula is becoming both woodier in its vegetation and drier. A regional analysis of 1113 random points indicated increased forest cover and decreased open and wet areas in both burned and unburned areas between 1950 and 1996. A census of water bodies in three subregions indicates that almost two-thirds of water bodies visited show some level of decrease in spatial area. Over 80% of field sites visited have experienced some level of drying, where vegetation transects indicate substantial invasion into former lake beds by facultative upland plants. These results are consistent with a regional change in climate that is both warming and drying as documented in Kenai and Anchorage weather records.